Thursday, May 19, 2016
Clinton v. Trump
It's a done deal. We lost the public relations battle in Nevada. Right or wrong, our people screwed the pooch. This cannot be fixed. Tactical catastrophe.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
The Americans: Gaad
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
I Give Up. Time to Recognize the Obvious.
I underestimated the power of the Trump tsunami, and the gullibility, the massive stupidity, of the average American.
The thugs and the fascists aren't concerned with the niceties of window dressing anymore. And they've sucked the air out of any chance for a Kasich rally. Or a Cruz, or Rubio one, for that matter.
It's a done deal for the GOP. It's not going to be a three man race. It's going to be Trump. God help us all. (Let me clue you in. There is no god. There is no help.) By this time next week, the deal will be done. (It already is.)
I'm still pulling for Bernie on the Dem side.But it's going to be Hillary. Can't live in dreams any more.
Ultimately, though, I think we will get the President we deserve. And the House and Senate (and state legislatures) to go with it... Sorry, folks. It looks more and more like President Donald J. Trump.
If I had any advice for the rest of the world after November, it would be to quarantine the United States until we come to our senses.
As for the USA, I recommend heavy medication.
The thugs and the fascists aren't concerned with the niceties of window dressing anymore. And they've sucked the air out of any chance for a Kasich rally. Or a Cruz, or Rubio one, for that matter.
It's a done deal for the GOP. It's not going to be a three man race. It's going to be Trump. God help us all. (Let me clue you in. There is no god. There is no help.) By this time next week, the deal will be done. (It already is.)
I'm still pulling for Bernie on the Dem side.But it's going to be Hillary. Can't live in dreams any more.
Ultimately, though, I think we will get the President we deserve. And the House and Senate (and state legislatures) to go with it... Sorry, folks. It looks more and more like President Donald J. Trump.
If I had any advice for the rest of the world after November, it would be to quarantine the United States until we come to our senses.
As for the USA, I recommend heavy medication.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
In the Wake of New Hampshire
Chris Christie just gave a speech that did not specifically say, but sounded a lot like, the speech one makes when they're ready to give up. He will announce that he's "suspending" his campaign within the next four days.
Carly Fiorino will announce that she's done within a day or two, or she's even dumber than we all know her to be.
Santorum is finished. Is Pataki still running?
It's down to the final GOP six, going into the pre-show of Nevada and South Carolina. We are all still shocked that the air hasn't gone out of the wind-bag that is "The Donald". Ted Cruz will get a short-lived blast from South Carolina by finishing top 3. Third, I think. Jeb! is going to feel the pressure to give it up after he shows in 5th. Trump will still carry the day in SC, but not by as much as he's used to.
Ben Carson is still hanging around because he thinks he's going to gain traction in SC. He won't. His numbers will be so bad that even he has to realize his fantasy is over.
It's going to be 1.Trump 2. Kasich (in a surprisingly strong showing) 3. Cruz three or four points behind Kasich And a distant 4th for Rubio (and the end of his dreams). Jeb! will come in close behind Rubio with Carson dead last barely polling in real numbers.
No matter who decides not to drop out, it will be a three man race in real terms by Super Tuesday. Cruz, Trump, and Kasich.
I said it a long time ago. Kasich is going to be the nominee.
"Have you ever met a dumb cop?" If you don't get the reference, you will hear it a fuck-ton going into November.
For the Dems? Bernie all the way, baby!!! Check the calendar for the primaries. Hillary may hang in for the big ones (Texas, California, New York), but her strengths there will vanish.
The wild cards are Trump's staying power (ephemeral) and Bloomberg or another spoiler getting in. Even then, I predict we know better, and are ready for President Bernie Sanders. (It's a long way away, and anything can happen...)
In Review:
I give myself a pretty good score, so far. There were some surprises. Trump's staying power. Walker dropping out so early. The failure-to-launch of Jeb! Paul's departure.
But I nailed Kasich before most thought him viable, had Bernie, and called the failure of Christie.
Watch this space.
BTW. This post was from January 9th. Two thousand FOURTEEN...For all you doubters...:
http://wildassguesses.blogspot.com/2014/01/bridges-rethought-and-gop-in-16.html
Carly Fiorino will announce that she's done within a day or two, or she's even dumber than we all know her to be.
Santorum is finished. Is Pataki still running?
It's down to the final GOP six, going into the pre-show of Nevada and South Carolina. We are all still shocked that the air hasn't gone out of the wind-bag that is "The Donald". Ted Cruz will get a short-lived blast from South Carolina by finishing top 3. Third, I think. Jeb! is going to feel the pressure to give it up after he shows in 5th. Trump will still carry the day in SC, but not by as much as he's used to.
Ben Carson is still hanging around because he thinks he's going to gain traction in SC. He won't. His numbers will be so bad that even he has to realize his fantasy is over.
It's going to be 1.Trump 2. Kasich (in a surprisingly strong showing) 3. Cruz three or four points behind Kasich And a distant 4th for Rubio (and the end of his dreams). Jeb! will come in close behind Rubio with Carson dead last barely polling in real numbers.
No matter who decides not to drop out, it will be a three man race in real terms by Super Tuesday. Cruz, Trump, and Kasich.
I said it a long time ago. Kasich is going to be the nominee.
"Have you ever met a dumb cop?" If you don't get the reference, you will hear it a fuck-ton going into November.
For the Dems? Bernie all the way, baby!!! Check the calendar for the primaries. Hillary may hang in for the big ones (Texas, California, New York), but her strengths there will vanish.
The wild cards are Trump's staying power (ephemeral) and Bloomberg or another spoiler getting in. Even then, I predict we know better, and are ready for President Bernie Sanders. (It's a long way away, and anything can happen...)
In Review:
I give myself a pretty good score, so far. There were some surprises. Trump's staying power. Walker dropping out so early. The failure-to-launch of Jeb! Paul's departure.
But I nailed Kasich before most thought him viable, had Bernie, and called the failure of Christie.
Watch this space.
BTW. This post was from January 9th. Two thousand FOURTEEN...For all you doubters...:
http://wildassguesses.blogspot.com/2014/01/bridges-rethought-and-gop-in-16.html
Monday, August 17, 2015
Tote Board Update (Things Change)
Update: 8/17/'15
Hillary v Bernie? 6/5 pick 'em.
You heard it here first. I think this thing is already a coin toss, with the nod going to Bernie by a nose. Momentum, BABY!!!
The GOP is all shaken up as well.
I think Walker and Jeb are faltering and Kasich is coming on. Trump has shaken the whole thing up, but is not going to factor when the rubber meets the road. Early to tell. Anything could happen.
Kasich 6/1
Bush 6/1
Walker 35/1
Paul 150/1
Carson 150/1
Christie, Graham, Perry, Trump, and a few others...out.
Whoever's left in the field 2500/1
Hillary v Bernie? 6/5 pick 'em.
You heard it here first. I think this thing is already a coin toss, with the nod going to Bernie by a nose. Momentum, BABY!!!
The GOP is all shaken up as well.
I think Walker and Jeb are faltering and Kasich is coming on. Trump has shaken the whole thing up, but is not going to factor when the rubber meets the road. Early to tell. Anything could happen.
Kasich 6/1
Bush 6/1
Walker 35/1
Paul 150/1
Carson 150/1
Christie, Graham, Perry, Trump, and a few others...out.
Whoever's left in the field 2500/1
Monday, August 10, 2015
Winnowing the Field (GOP '16)
Before the Iowa caucuses, the GOP field will shrink to only: Bush, Trump, Kasich, Huckabee, Carson, Walker, Rubio, Paul, Christie, Cruz, and possibly Fiorino and Jindal (very unlikely). I may be forgetting one or two. Perry is already wounded and on the way out. Gilmour? Who?...Santorum is a non-starter this time. Pataki and Graham are not serious and couldn't generate a buzz if they were electrocuted in an indoor pot farm.
In Iowa, Cruz, Huckabee, and Carson will be splitting the same demo. They will be of little concern in New Hampshire, but may hang around for South Carolina. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Christie will split another. Fiorino and Jindal will see their dreams fade away like a midwestern rainstorm. Trump will either self destruct, or be the frontrunner out of Iowa. Either way, he's not going past Super Tuesday, though he may do well in S. C.
Christie's last gasp is going to be New Hampshire. Huckabee will get killed in New Hampshire but might find a voter or two to make him hang around after S. C. Funding is key. A lot of the air is going to get sucked out of a lot candidates by the middle of March.
Going into S.C., the only ones left will be: Bush, Kasich, Trump (maybe, and not for long) Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Walker, and Paul. And a few of those will likely be gone. S.C. will wound, but not kill Cruz, Walker, and Rubio.
Super Tuesday leaves only Bush, (maybe) Rubio, Kasich, and Paul, and possibly Walker if the Kochs are REALLY convinced he's their guy.
17 down to 3, possibly 5...
In Iowa, Cruz, Huckabee, and Carson will be splitting the same demo. They will be of little concern in New Hampshire, but may hang around for South Carolina. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Christie will split another. Fiorino and Jindal will see their dreams fade away like a midwestern rainstorm. Trump will either self destruct, or be the frontrunner out of Iowa. Either way, he's not going past Super Tuesday, though he may do well in S. C.
Christie's last gasp is going to be New Hampshire. Huckabee will get killed in New Hampshire but might find a voter or two to make him hang around after S. C. Funding is key. A lot of the air is going to get sucked out of a lot candidates by the middle of March.
Going into S.C., the only ones left will be: Bush, Kasich, Trump (maybe, and not for long) Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Walker, and Paul. And a few of those will likely be gone. S.C. will wound, but not kill Cruz, Walker, and Rubio.
Super Tuesday leaves only Bush, (maybe) Rubio, Kasich, and Paul, and possibly Walker if the Kochs are REALLY convinced he's their guy.
17 down to 3, possibly 5...
Monday, July 27, 2015
Bernie '16
I'm moving him up to 10-1 to take the Democratic nomination for POTUS. Partly out of a feel for a groundswell in social media circles, mostly (I must admit) from confirmation bias. Hillary is still 4-5.
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