Update: 8/17/'15
Hillary v Bernie? 6/5 pick 'em.
You heard it here first. I think this thing is already a coin toss, with the nod going to Bernie by a nose. Momentum, BABY!!!
The GOP is all shaken up as well.
I
think Walker and Jeb are faltering and Kasich is coming on. Trump has
shaken the whole thing up, but is not going to factor when the rubber
meets the road. Early to tell. Anything could happen.
Kasich 6/1
Bush 6/1
Walker 35/1
Paul 150/1
Carson 150/1
Christie, Graham, Perry, Trump, and a few others...out.
Whoever's left in the field 2500/1
Monday, August 17, 2015
Monday, August 10, 2015
Winnowing the Field (GOP '16)
Before the Iowa caucuses, the GOP field will shrink to only: Bush, Trump, Kasich, Huckabee, Carson, Walker, Rubio, Paul, Christie, Cruz, and possibly Fiorino and Jindal (very unlikely). I may be forgetting one or two. Perry is already wounded and on the way out. Gilmour? Who?...Santorum is a non-starter this time. Pataki and Graham are not serious and couldn't generate a buzz if they were electrocuted in an indoor pot farm.
In Iowa, Cruz, Huckabee, and Carson will be splitting the same demo. They will be of little concern in New Hampshire, but may hang around for South Carolina. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Christie will split another. Fiorino and Jindal will see their dreams fade away like a midwestern rainstorm. Trump will either self destruct, or be the frontrunner out of Iowa. Either way, he's not going past Super Tuesday, though he may do well in S. C.
Christie's last gasp is going to be New Hampshire. Huckabee will get killed in New Hampshire but might find a voter or two to make him hang around after S. C. Funding is key. A lot of the air is going to get sucked out of a lot candidates by the middle of March.
Going into S.C., the only ones left will be: Bush, Kasich, Trump (maybe, and not for long) Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Walker, and Paul. And a few of those will likely be gone. S.C. will wound, but not kill Cruz, Walker, and Rubio.
Super Tuesday leaves only Bush, (maybe) Rubio, Kasich, and Paul, and possibly Walker if the Kochs are REALLY convinced he's their guy.
17 down to 3, possibly 5...
In Iowa, Cruz, Huckabee, and Carson will be splitting the same demo. They will be of little concern in New Hampshire, but may hang around for South Carolina. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Christie will split another. Fiorino and Jindal will see their dreams fade away like a midwestern rainstorm. Trump will either self destruct, or be the frontrunner out of Iowa. Either way, he's not going past Super Tuesday, though he may do well in S. C.
Christie's last gasp is going to be New Hampshire. Huckabee will get killed in New Hampshire but might find a voter or two to make him hang around after S. C. Funding is key. A lot of the air is going to get sucked out of a lot candidates by the middle of March.
Going into S.C., the only ones left will be: Bush, Kasich, Trump (maybe, and not for long) Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Walker, and Paul. And a few of those will likely be gone. S.C. will wound, but not kill Cruz, Walker, and Rubio.
Super Tuesday leaves only Bush, (maybe) Rubio, Kasich, and Paul, and possibly Walker if the Kochs are REALLY convinced he's their guy.
17 down to 3, possibly 5...
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