Update: 8/17/'15
Hillary v Bernie? 6/5 pick 'em.
You heard it here first. I think this thing is already a coin toss, with the nod going to Bernie by a nose. Momentum, BABY!!!
The GOP is all shaken up as well.
I
think Walker and Jeb are faltering and Kasich is coming on. Trump has
shaken the whole thing up, but is not going to factor when the rubber
meets the road. Early to tell. Anything could happen.
Kasich 6/1
Bush 6/1
Walker 35/1
Paul 150/1
Carson 150/1
Christie, Graham, Perry, Trump, and a few others...out.
Whoever's left in the field 2500/1
Monday, August 17, 2015
Monday, August 10, 2015
Winnowing the Field (GOP '16)
Before the Iowa caucuses, the GOP field will shrink to only: Bush, Trump, Kasich, Huckabee, Carson, Walker, Rubio, Paul, Christie, Cruz, and possibly Fiorino and Jindal (very unlikely). I may be forgetting one or two. Perry is already wounded and on the way out. Gilmour? Who?...Santorum is a non-starter this time. Pataki and Graham are not serious and couldn't generate a buzz if they were electrocuted in an indoor pot farm.
In Iowa, Cruz, Huckabee, and Carson will be splitting the same demo. They will be of little concern in New Hampshire, but may hang around for South Carolina. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Christie will split another. Fiorino and Jindal will see their dreams fade away like a midwestern rainstorm. Trump will either self destruct, or be the frontrunner out of Iowa. Either way, he's not going past Super Tuesday, though he may do well in S. C.
Christie's last gasp is going to be New Hampshire. Huckabee will get killed in New Hampshire but might find a voter or two to make him hang around after S. C. Funding is key. A lot of the air is going to get sucked out of a lot candidates by the middle of March.
Going into S.C., the only ones left will be: Bush, Kasich, Trump (maybe, and not for long) Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Walker, and Paul. And a few of those will likely be gone. S.C. will wound, but not kill Cruz, Walker, and Rubio.
Super Tuesday leaves only Bush, (maybe) Rubio, Kasich, and Paul, and possibly Walker if the Kochs are REALLY convinced he's their guy.
17 down to 3, possibly 5...
In Iowa, Cruz, Huckabee, and Carson will be splitting the same demo. They will be of little concern in New Hampshire, but may hang around for South Carolina. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker and Christie will split another. Fiorino and Jindal will see their dreams fade away like a midwestern rainstorm. Trump will either self destruct, or be the frontrunner out of Iowa. Either way, he's not going past Super Tuesday, though he may do well in S. C.
Christie's last gasp is going to be New Hampshire. Huckabee will get killed in New Hampshire but might find a voter or two to make him hang around after S. C. Funding is key. A lot of the air is going to get sucked out of a lot candidates by the middle of March.
Going into S.C., the only ones left will be: Bush, Kasich, Trump (maybe, and not for long) Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Walker, and Paul. And a few of those will likely be gone. S.C. will wound, but not kill Cruz, Walker, and Rubio.
Super Tuesday leaves only Bush, (maybe) Rubio, Kasich, and Paul, and possibly Walker if the Kochs are REALLY convinced he's their guy.
17 down to 3, possibly 5...
Monday, July 27, 2015
Bernie '16
I'm moving him up to 10-1 to take the Democratic nomination for POTUS. Partly out of a feel for a groundswell in social media circles, mostly (I must admit) from confirmation bias. Hillary is still 4-5.
Friday, February 27, 2015
Update: Duly Chastened
Just reviewing the initial post for this blog and found this ..um...doozy:
"2014-Democrats will take a stronger control of the Senate, and will narrow their deficit in the House, if not take the majority."
The other stuff there seems fairly solid, though.
"2014-Democrats will take a stronger control of the Senate, and will narrow their deficit in the House, if not take the majority."
The other stuff there seems fairly solid, though.
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Brian Williams
They keep tossing up the "no-brainers" for me. The ones that are too easy to call.
Brian Williams is not taking a few days off.
He's done. And he ain't coming back.
I'm truly sorry to see it. We always liked him.
Brian Williams is not taking a few days off.
He's done. And he ain't coming back.
I'm truly sorry to see it. We always liked him.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Super Bowl
But, for the old shits and giggles...
New England by 14.
38-24.
And the city of Glendale, Arizona is going to take a hit financially, as usual, for the whole thing.
28-24. New England. Well, it would have been enough to cover the real spread...
Friday, January 23, 2015
1-23-15: Handicapping 2016
Odds for the winner of the GOP nomination for President in 2016 as they stand right now:
Jeb Bush 8/5
Mitt Romney 15/1
John Kasich 15/1
Chris Christy 50/1
Rand Paul 50/1
John Thune 175/1
Mike Huckabee 5000/1
Rest of the field 1000/1
Remember, these odds are from me. I handicapped the field. So, take it with a grain of salt. But when he makes his move, Kasich is going to be the Elephant in the room (pun intended).
I'm handicapping this as it stands right now. I still contend that, in this "pre-jockeying" part of the race, Kasich is searching for a path, no matter how slim. And if he finds it, he's the guy. By a long shot. The only thing holding him back, as far as I can see right now, is the "stupid cop" video. And that's so minor, it's next to nothing. That, and staring at a crowded field. If he looks closer, he'll see it's cluttered with debris, not crowded.
Hillary is still the outright leader on the Dem side, and I don't see that changing. Not yet.
Hillary is so far ahead, she's 2/7, maybe 1/5, with the rest just a field bet. Field is at 500/1 right now.
http://realitybyalex.blogspot.com/2015/01/kasich-and-so-it-begins.html
1-30-2015. Time to reconfigure already. I called Romney not running, and here's the news today:
http://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-not-running-president-2016-161525009.html
Jeb Bush 8/5
John Kasich 12/1
Chris Christie 45/1
Rand Paul 50/1
John Thune 150/1
Field 1500/1
I've moved Huckabee down into the field bet. His chances keep getting more distant each time he opens his mouth.
Just a bit more fine tuning, later in the day.
Jeb Bush 8/5
John Kasich 12/1
Scott Walker 15/1
Chris Christie 45/1
Rand Paul 50/1
Field 1500/1
Sarah Palin 10,000,000/1
Update: 2/28/15 After the scene at CPAC today...Slight Jeb downgrade. And no sign of interest from (or for) the Kasich camp.
Jeb Bush 3/1
Scott Walker 12/1
John Kasich 25/1
Chris Christie 50/1 (odds on a prison term about the same)
Rand Paul 50/1
Field 1400/1
Sarah Palin 10 Billion/1
Update: 8/17/'15
Hillary v Bernie? 6/5 pick 'em.
You heard it here first. I think this thing is already a coin toss, with the nod going to Bernie by a nose. Momentum, BABY!!!
The GOP is all shaken up as well.
I think Walker and Jeb are faltering and Kasich is coming on. Trump has shaken the whole thing up, but is not going to factor when the rubber meets the road. Early to tell. Anything could happen.
Kasich 6/1
Bush 6/1
Walker 35/1
Paul 150/1
Carson 150/1
Christie, Graham, Perry, Trump, and a few others...out.
Whoever's left in the field 2500/1
Jeb Bush 8/5
Mitt Romney 15/1
John Kasich 15/1
Chris Christy 50/1
Rand Paul 50/1
John Thune 175/1
Mike Huckabee 5000/1
Rest of the field 1000/1
Remember, these odds are from me. I handicapped the field. So, take it with a grain of salt. But when he makes his move, Kasich is going to be the Elephant in the room (pun intended).
I'm handicapping this as it stands right now. I still contend that, in this "pre-jockeying" part of the race, Kasich is searching for a path, no matter how slim. And if he finds it, he's the guy. By a long shot. The only thing holding him back, as far as I can see right now, is the "stupid cop" video. And that's so minor, it's next to nothing. That, and staring at a crowded field. If he looks closer, he'll see it's cluttered with debris, not crowded.
Hillary is still the outright leader on the Dem side, and I don't see that changing. Not yet.
Hillary is so far ahead, she's 2/7, maybe 1/5, with the rest just a field bet. Field is at 500/1 right now.
http://realitybyalex.blogspot.com/2015/01/kasich-and-so-it-begins.html
1-30-2015. Time to reconfigure already. I called Romney not running, and here's the news today:
http://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-not-running-president-2016-161525009.html
Jeb Bush 8/5
John Kasich 12/1
Chris Christie 45/1
Rand Paul 50/1
John Thune 150/1
Field 1500/1
I've moved Huckabee down into the field bet. His chances keep getting more distant each time he opens his mouth.
Just a bit more fine tuning, later in the day.
Jeb Bush 8/5
John Kasich 12/1
Scott Walker 15/1
Chris Christie 45/1
Rand Paul 50/1
Field 1500/1
Sarah Palin 10,000,000/1
Update: 2/28/15 After the scene at CPAC today...Slight Jeb downgrade. And no sign of interest from (or for) the Kasich camp.
Jeb Bush 3/1
Scott Walker 12/1
John Kasich 25/1
Chris Christie 50/1 (odds on a prison term about the same)
Rand Paul 50/1
Field 1400/1
Sarah Palin 10 Billion/1
Update: 8/17/'15
Hillary v Bernie? 6/5 pick 'em.
You heard it here first. I think this thing is already a coin toss, with the nod going to Bernie by a nose. Momentum, BABY!!!
The GOP is all shaken up as well.
I think Walker and Jeb are faltering and Kasich is coming on. Trump has shaken the whole thing up, but is not going to factor when the rubber meets the road. Early to tell. Anything could happen.
Kasich 6/1
Bush 6/1
Walker 35/1
Paul 150/1
Carson 150/1
Christie, Graham, Perry, Trump, and a few others...out.
Whoever's left in the field 2500/1
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Romney is not going to run
Mitt Romney isn't going to run. The Scott Prouty recording of his 47%
speech killed his career in politics as a candidate forever. But he can
tease the public, and more importantly, fundraisers. And keep his name
in there as a mover in the party. He'll be able to raise a lot of money,
make some noise, and act like he was the injured party. It's the Palin
strategy. And it's profitable.
Mitt Romney is as viable a candidate as our dead cat.
He's been around enough to know political reality. It's a different game. He's a numbers and money guy. He sees the money, and can do the numbers. It's politics, but it isn't.
What did Matt Taibbi from Rolling Stone call it? Vampire Squid? It's not the game you think it is. He mastered this ruse @ Bain a long time ago.
The debates will be every bit as ridiculous as they were the last time around. But I'm betting Mitt will not be there.
Huckabee and Carson will be there. And they will get past Iowa. And they'll cause a big stink, raise a ruckus, and raise money. They'll cut a deal after South Carolina, where they will both do better than they should, and whoever is left after the other bows out will get crushed before Super Tuesday.
Cruz is going to wipe out early. Rand Paul will do as well as his dad did, maybe. Maybe not. It will be Jeb, unless one of my dark horse guys comes in. Watch out for Thune or Kasich.
Although, Thune and Kasich may both be vulnerable to falling natural gas prices.
Even with Jeb, the wing nuts of the GOP are going to make him phrase the debates in ways he won't want to go. They're going to be pumped up on adrenaline and bad hooch from the '14 cycle, forgetting that they actually LOST that election by national popular vote by a margin of over 20 million.
Update:
It very well might be Kasich. He would trounce the others in debate with a lot of media experience. He's positioning himself as a "compassionate conservative" and can sell that lie far better than G W Bush ever did. He has solid bona fides in all the right wing nut job check boxes, yet can sound reasonable to an undiscerning audience (typical American voter). As a stealth candidate, this is the most dangerous guy out there.
http://realitybyalex.blogspot.com/2015/01/kasich-and-so-it-begins.html
Mitt Romney is as viable a candidate as our dead cat.
He's been around enough to know political reality. It's a different game. He's a numbers and money guy. He sees the money, and can do the numbers. It's politics, but it isn't.
What did Matt Taibbi from Rolling Stone call it? Vampire Squid? It's not the game you think it is. He mastered this ruse @ Bain a long time ago.
The debates will be every bit as ridiculous as they were the last time around. But I'm betting Mitt will not be there.
Huckabee and Carson will be there. And they will get past Iowa. And they'll cause a big stink, raise a ruckus, and raise money. They'll cut a deal after South Carolina, where they will both do better than they should, and whoever is left after the other bows out will get crushed before Super Tuesday.
Cruz is going to wipe out early. Rand Paul will do as well as his dad did, maybe. Maybe not. It will be Jeb, unless one of my dark horse guys comes in. Watch out for Thune or Kasich.
Although, Thune and Kasich may both be vulnerable to falling natural gas prices.
Even with Jeb, the wing nuts of the GOP are going to make him phrase the debates in ways he won't want to go. They're going to be pumped up on adrenaline and bad hooch from the '14 cycle, forgetting that they actually LOST that election by national popular vote by a margin of over 20 million.
Update:
It very well might be Kasich. He would trounce the others in debate with a lot of media experience. He's positioning himself as a "compassionate conservative" and can sell that lie far better than G W Bush ever did. He has solid bona fides in all the right wing nut job check boxes, yet can sound reasonable to an undiscerning audience (typical American voter). As a stealth candidate, this is the most dangerous guy out there.
http://realitybyalex.blogspot.com/2015/01/kasich-and-so-it-begins.html
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Governor Ultrasound Goes to Camp
Bob "Governor Ultrasound" McDonnell of Virginia is going away to prison. We all cheer.
Big fucking deal. The next GOP or even "moderate" bluedog Democratic Governor will commute his sentence. He will get off before he sees the inside of a cell, and though his reputation may get slightly tarnished, he will be hanging around conservative circles, raising cash and being a talking head, in the style of Tom Delay, another one who dodged the bullet. They must protect their own.
I was no fan of Jim Trafficant, and think he got what he deserved, but we , on the left are not as forgiving to our convicted criminals. What he did, compared to the crimes of "The Hammer" and "The Magic Wand" seems to be shoplifting a candy bar vs. bank robbery. Granted, he had no Democratic Governor to come to his aid, and he bolted his party too often to caucus with the enemy. But it cost him his political life. In many ways, if you watch, McDonnell will lose next to nothing, and will still be a powerful player behind the scenes, respected among his party.
Meantime, in Kansas, Sam Brownback is robbing pension funds to pay for the hole he left in the state budget with gifts of massive tax cuts to corporations and the wealthy. That's right. He blatantly robbed the working class to give to his rich buddies, and it's just all chalked up to a social/economic experiment. Not even considered illegal or unethical.
We're truly, really, unequivocally, screwed.
Big fucking deal. The next GOP or even "moderate" bluedog Democratic Governor will commute his sentence. He will get off before he sees the inside of a cell, and though his reputation may get slightly tarnished, he will be hanging around conservative circles, raising cash and being a talking head, in the style of Tom Delay, another one who dodged the bullet. They must protect their own.
I was no fan of Jim Trafficant, and think he got what he deserved, but we , on the left are not as forgiving to our convicted criminals. What he did, compared to the crimes of "The Hammer" and "The Magic Wand" seems to be shoplifting a candy bar vs. bank robbery. Granted, he had no Democratic Governor to come to his aid, and he bolted his party too often to caucus with the enemy. But it cost him his political life. In many ways, if you watch, McDonnell will lose next to nothing, and will still be a powerful player behind the scenes, respected among his party.
Meantime, in Kansas, Sam Brownback is robbing pension funds to pay for the hole he left in the state budget with gifts of massive tax cuts to corporations and the wealthy. That's right. He blatantly robbed the working class to give to his rich buddies, and it's just all chalked up to a social/economic experiment. Not even considered illegal or unethical.
We're truly, really, unequivocally, screwed.
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