1-23-15: Handicapping 2016

Odds for the winner of the GOP nomination for President in 2016 as they stand right now:

Jeb Bush 8/5
Mitt Romney 15/1
John Kasich 15/1
Chris Christy 50/1
Rand Paul 50/1
John Thune 175/1
Mike Huckabee 5000/1
Rest of the field 1000/1

Remember, these odds are from me. I handicapped the field. So, take it with a grain of salt. But when he makes his move, Kasich is going to be the Elephant in the room (pun intended).

 I'm handicapping this as it stands right now. I still contend that, in this "pre-jockeying" part of the race, Kasich is searching for a path, no matter how slim. And if he finds it, he's the guy. By a long shot. The only thing holding him back, as far as I can see right now, is the "stupid cop" video. And that's so minor, it's next to nothing. That, and staring at a crowded field. If he looks closer, he'll see it's cluttered with debris, not crowded.
Hillary is still the outright leader on the Dem side, and I don't see that changing. Not yet.

Hillary is so far ahead, she's 2/7, maybe 1/5,  with the rest just a field bet. Field is at 500/1 right now.

http://realitybyalex.blogspot.com/2015/01/kasich-and-so-it-begins.html
1-30-2015. Time to reconfigure already. I called Romney not running, and here's the news today:
http://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-not-running-president-2016-161525009.html


Jeb Bush 8/5
John Kasich 12/1
Chris Christie 45/1
Rand Paul 50/1
John Thune 150/1
Field 1500/1

I've moved Huckabee down into the field bet. His chances keep getting more distant each time he opens his mouth.

Just a bit more fine tuning, later in the day.

Jeb Bush 8/5
John Kasich 12/1
Scott Walker 15/1
Chris Christie 45/1
Rand Paul 50/1
Field 1500/1
Sarah Palin 10,000,000/1

Update: 2/28/15 After the scene at CPAC today...Slight Jeb downgrade. And no sign of  interest from (or for) the Kasich camp.

Jeb Bush 3/1
Scott Walker 12/1
John Kasich 25/1
Chris Christie 50/1 (odds on a prison term about the same)
Rand Paul 50/1
Field 1400/1
Sarah Palin 10 Billion/1



Update: 8/17/'15
Hillary v Bernie? 6/5 pick 'em.
You heard it here first. I think this thing is already a coin toss, with the nod going to Bernie by a nose. Momentum, BABY!!!

The GOP is all shaken up as well.
I think Walker and Jeb are faltering and Kasich is coming on. Trump has shaken the whole thing up, but is not going to factor when the rubber meets the  road. Early to tell. Anything could happen.

Kasich 6/1
Bush 6/1
Walker 35/1
Paul 150/1
Carson 150/1
Christie, Graham, Perry, Trump, and a few others...out.
Whoever's left in the field 2500/1